Expected Value, Betting, and Fold Equity
Learning objectiveCompare actions with explicit outcomes and assumptions.
Understand the idea
EV is the average chip result over repeated comparable decisions. A simplified call EV is equity×pot − (1−equity)×call. A simplified bluff bet of B into pot P that has zero showdown value earns F×P − (1−F)×B, where F is the chance everyone folds. This ignores raises, ties, and future action.
Value betting aims to be called by weaker holdings often enough to profit. A bluff needs sufficient fold equity or backup showdown equity. Compare candidate actions in chips and respect legal.minTo/legal.maxTo; a theoretical attractive bet is useless if the server does not allow it.
At the poker table
Bluffing 30 into a 60-chip pot with zero showdown equity requires folds more than 30/(60+30) = 33.3% of the time to show a positive simplified EV.
Code and decision sketch
Pseudocodebluff_ev = fold_probability * pot - (1 - fold_probability) * bet_sizeCommon mistake
Do not present a guessed opponent fold rate as observed fact, or assume this formula covers multiway calls and raises.
Try it yourself
Compute simplified bluff EV with P=80, B=40, and fold probability 25%, then 40%.