Skip to Universal Law
Flawless Poker

Universal Law 05

COLLISION COURSE

Preflop all-in matchups

If both hands are known and the board is run with no more betting, every one of the 1,712,304 runouts can be counted. Suits move the result a little.

Equity in this table is the share of the pot if the board is run out now: wins, plus half the ties. The suits are part of the count. Aces against kings win 81.3% when the suits do not overlap, and 82.6% when the kings share both suits with the aces, because some flush runouts disappear.

Full count of 1,712,304 boards for the cards named.
MatchupExact cardsWinTieEquity
Aces vs kingsAsAh vs KdKc81.1%0.4%81.3%
Aces vs kings, suits sharedAsAh vs KsKh82.4%0.5%82.6%
Kings vs ace-king offsuitKsKh vs AdKc69.6%0.8%70.0%
Ace-king suited vs queensAsKs vs QdQh46.0%0.4%46.2%
Ace-king offsuit vs queensAsKd vs QcQh42.7%0.3%42.8%
Deuces vs ace-king offsuit2s2h vs AdKc52.7%0.6%53.0%
Jacks vs ace-king suitedJsJh vs AdKd53.7%0.4%53.9%
Ace-king vs ace-queen, dominatedAsKd vs AhQc71.7%4.6%74.0%
King-queen vs ace-king, dominatedKsQd vs AhKc25.3%1.1%25.8%
Ace-five suited vs king-queenAs5s vs KdQc60.4%0.5%60.6%
Jack-ten suited vs ace-kingJsTs vs AdKc41.0%0.4%41.2%
Queens vs jacksQsQh vs JdJc81.1%0.4%81.3%
Seven-six suited vs aces7s6s vs AdAh22.9%0.3%23.0%
Ace-deuce vs king-jackAs2d vs KhJc57.1%0.5%57.4%

A pair against two overcards is close to a coin flip in these rows, about 53% to 57% for the pair. A pair against two undercards is about 80/20. A dominated hand, sharing a card and holding the worse kicker, sits near 25% to 30% when it is the underdog, as king-queen is against ace-king. Ace-king against ace-queen is the other side of that domination, 74% once ties are shared.

Aces against the crowd.

Pocket aces are the best starting hand. They are not a lock once more random hands see a showdown. These shares are simulations of 200,000 deals each, against that many random hands.

Pocket aces all in against random hands.
Random opponentsAces' equity
185.3%
273.4%
363.9%
549.2%
834.6%

Seven-deuce offsuit still wins about 35% of preflop all-ins against one random hand. That is why a bad beat happens, and why seven-deuce is still folded in a normal game. If you hold ace-king, one opponent holds an ace in 144 of the 1,225 hands they can be dealt, 11.8%. The picture shows that chance climbing as more random hands are dealt.

FLAWLESS POKER / STUDY CHART

Preflop all-in matchups

Bar chart of example preflop all-in equities, including queen-queen versus ace-king offsuit at 57.1 percent, ace-king versus ace-queen at 74.0 percent, and ace-ace versus king-king at 81.5 percent for the first hand.
Example heads-up matchups, simulated over 300,000 random runouts per pair. Percentages include split pots and are estimates; exact equity changes with the particular suits, exposed cards, and opponents’ ranges. They do not tell you whether an all-in is profitable. Open full-size chart ↗
FLAWLESS POKER / STUDY CHART

Pocket aces against more opponents

Illustrative pocket-aces preflop all-in equity declines from about 85 percent against one random hand to about 35 percent against eight random hands.
Simulated all-in outcomes against random hands. The exact equity varies with suits and opponent ranges. Raising can reduce the field, but these figures do not prescribe a particular raise or guarantee a win. Open full-size chart ↗
FLAWLESS POKER / STUDY CHART

Even the worst hand wins sometimes

Seven-deuce offsuit wins about 35 percent of preflop all-ins against one random hand.
A 100,000-deal all-in simulation of seven-deuce offsuit against one random hand, including splits. The share is about 35 percent. That is why bad beats happen, and it is still a fold before the flop in a normal game. Open full-size chart ↗
FLAWLESS POKER / STUDY CHART

When you hold ace-king, who else has an ace?

Chance that at least one opponent holds an ace when you have ace-king, increasing from about twelve percent against one opponent to about sixty-nine percent against eight.
A card-removal illustration for random opponent hands, with exact calculation heads-up and simulation for larger fields. It describes the chance someone holds an ace, not whether ace-king is ahead or how to play it. Open full-size chart ↗

These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.