The average wait is one divided by the chance of the hand. Pocket aces are 6 of 1,326, so the average wait is 221 deals. A specific suited hand such as ace-king of spades is 1 of 1,326, so the class of ace-king suited, four combinations, waits 1,326 ÷ 4, which is 331.5 deals.
| Hand | Average wait, in hands dealt |
|---|---|
| Pocket aces | 221 |
| Any pocket pair | 17 |
| Queens or better, or ace-king | 39 |
| Ace-king suited | 331.5 |
A drought is still ordinary.
Missing for the length of the average wait is common. After 221 hands, about 37% of stretches still have not dealt pocket aces. The chance of missing every hand in a stretch is (1,320 ÷ 1,326) raised to the number of hands. A pocket pair uses 1,248 ÷ 1,326.
| Stretch | Chance | Plain English |
|---|---|---|
| No pocket aces in 100 hands | 63.54% | 1 in 1.6 |
| No pocket aces in 221 hands | 36.70% | 1 in 2.7 |
| No pocket aces in 500 hands | 10.36% | 1 in 9.7 |
| No pocket aces in 1,000 hands | 1.07% | 1 in 93 |
| No pocket aces in 2,000 hands | 0.01% | 1 in 8,693 |
| No pocket pair in 10 hands | 54.54% | 1 in 1.8 |
| No pocket pair in 17 hands | 35.68% | 1 in 2.8 |
| No pocket pair in 25 hands | 21.97% | 1 in 4.6 |
| No pocket pair in 50 hands | 4.83% | 1 in 21 |
| No pocket pair in 100 hands | 0.23% | 1 in 429 |
| At least one pair of aces in 100 hands | 36.46% | 1 in 2.7 |
| At least one pair of aces in 221 hands | 63.30% | 1 in 1.6 |
| At least one pair of aces in 500 hands | 89.64% | 1 in 1.1 |
| At least one pair of aces in 1,000 hands | 98.93% | 1 in 1.0 |
Someone at the table holds them.
| Who is dealt aces | Chance | Plain English |
|---|---|---|
| You | 0.45% | 1 in 221 |
| Anyone at a heads-up table | 0.90% | 1 in 111 |
| Anyone at a six-handed table | 2.71% | 1 in 37 |
| Anyone at a nine-handed table | 4.06% | 1 in 25 |
These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.