| Draw on the flop | Chance | Plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Backdoor flush, three to a flush after the flop | 4.16% | 1 in 24 |
| Backdoor straight, 8s 7d on 6c 2h Kd | 4.44% | 1 in 23 |
Each of those backdoors is a little over 4% of the pot if the hand is all in and the draw is clean. Small, and still part of the count.
When some outs are already gone.
The dead-out counts below are examples: cards you treat as burned or sitting in another hand. The percentages are the exact chance for the live outs that remain. Turn to river is one card from 46. Flop to river is both cards.
| Draw | Outs already gone | Live outs | Turn to river | Flop to river |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 0 | 9 | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw | 1 | 8 | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 2 | 7 | 15.2% | 27.8% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 0 | 8 | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 1 | 7 | 15.2% | 27.8% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 2 | 6 | 13.0% | 24.1% |
These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.