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Flawless Poker

Universal Law 20

TWIN SUNS

Running it twice

Deal the rest of the board twice and split by the two results. Each run has the same odds, so the average does not move. The spread does.

Each run has the same odds, so the average share of the pot does not change. What changes is the spread. The two runs share one deck, so a card used in the first run cannot appear in the second. That is why the remaining swing is a little under half, not exactly half.

One run against two runs. Each matchup is a simulation of 200,000 deals. The swing column is a standard deviation of the pot share.
MatchupAverage share, onceAverage share, twiceSwing, once to twiceVariance keptPot chopped 1 to 1
Aces vs kings81.2%81.2%0.389 to 0.26546%32.4%
Deuces vs ace-king offsuit52.9%53.0%0.498 to 0.34147%52.2%

Same average. A smoother ride.

These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.