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Flawless Poker

Universal Law 06

GRAVITY WELLS

Pot odds, defense, and bluffs

Three different questions hide in one bet size. What a call must win, what a pure bluff must get through, and how much of a range continues so that bluff cannot print money.

Required equity is how often a call must win to break even when this bet closes the hand: the call divided by the pot after you call. For a bet of size B into a pot P, that is B ÷ (P + 2B).

A pure bluff, one that wins nothing when called, needs folds of B ÷ (P + B). Minimum defense frequency is the rest: the share of a range that must continue so that pure bluff does not profit by itself. It is a benchmark against mindless bluffs, not a rule that every continuing hand must be played.

Exact prices. No rake, and no bet after this one. One-third pot is exactly one fifth to call, which is 20%, not the 19.9% of a bet that is 33% of the pot.
Bet into the potCall needsMinimum defensePure bluff needs
Quarter pot16.7% (1/6)80%20%
One-third pot20% (1/5)75%25%
Half pot25% (1/4)66.7%33.3%
Two-thirds pot28.6% (2/7)60%40%
Three-quarter pot30% (3/10)57.1%42.9%
Full pot33.3% (1/3)50%50%
One and a half pot37.5% (3/8)40%60%
Twice pot40% (2/5)33.3%66.7%

Implied odds are future money, and they are an estimate.

Implied odds are chips you expect to win on later streets when you hit. They can make a call reasonable when the immediate price is a little short. They are not a number the deck gives you.

One call, with the arithmetic shown.

You call 10 into a pot that is already 30, so you need 10 ÷ 40, which is 25%, if the call ends the hand. You have 9 clean outs and only the river is left: 9 ÷ 46 is 19.6%. The call wants about (10 ÷ 0.196) − 40, roughly 11 more chips of future winnings, on average, before it breaks even. The 10, the 30, and the single street are an example. The division is exact for those inputs.

FLAWLESS POKER / STUDY CHART

Pot odds made simple

Equity needed to call: 17 percent for a quarter-pot bet, 20 percent for a third-pot bet, 25 percent for half pot, 29 percent for two-thirds pot, 33 percent for pot, and 40 percent for twice pot.
Exact showdown math: equity equals the bet divided by the pot plus twice the bet. No rake and no future betting. A half-pot bet needs a win about 1 time in 4. Open full-size chart ↗

These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.