RED GIANTS

Monsters under monsters

The hands that hurt most are strong hands that meet a stronger one.

Two random hands dealt to the river. Simulation of 2,000,000 deals.

Showdown	Chance per hand	Plain English
Flush beats a flush	0.60%	about 1 in 167
Straight beats a straight	0.35%	about 1 in 286
Full house beats a full house	0.23%	about 1 in 427
Flush and straight meet (flush wins)	0.23%	about 1 in 439

Set over set, by table size.

Every player is dealt in and every hand is kept to the flop. The row asks how often at least two players flop a set.

Simulation of 1,000,000 deals per row. The heads-up row rests on only 36 hits, so treat it as rough.

Players	Two or more flop a set	Plain English
2	0.004%	about 1 in 27,778
3	0.011%	about 1 in 9,434
4	0.021%	about 1 in 4,808
6	0.055%	about 1 in 1,808
9	0.128%	about 1 in 780

From Supernovas.

Once two players already hold different pocket pairs, both flop a set about 1% of the time (exact, chapter 09). Most of the rarity comes from both players being dealt a pair in the first place.

Two or more players flop a set about 1 in 780 hands at a 9-player table, in a 1,000,000-deal simulation. — A simulation of 1,000,000 deals per bar, with every player dealt in to the flop. The heads-up bar rests on only 36 hits. Open full-size chart ↗

These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.

Set over set, by table size.

Set over set grows with the table