ESCAPE VELOCITY

Expected value of common bets

Expected value is the average result if the same spot were played many times. One formula, four common shapes.

Every stake below is made up to show the arithmetic. The arithmetic itself is exact.

Four worked examples, using example inputs.

Bet type	Formula	Example inputs	EV	Break-even
Call	EV = equity × (pot + bet) − (1 − equity) × call	pot 100, facing 50, equity 30%	+10.00	equity 25%
Pure bluff	EV = fold% × pot − (1 − fold%) × bet	pot 100, bet 75, folds 45%	+3.75	folds 42.9%
Semi-bluff	EV = fold% × pot + (1 − fold%) × [equity × (pot + 2·bet) − bet]	pot 100, bet 75, folds 30%, equity 35% when called	+38.75	—
Value bet vs check	EV(bet) = call% × [win% × (pot + 2·bet) − bet] + fold% × pot	pot 100, bet 60, called 50%, wins 80% when called	108 vs 80 for checking	—

A note on the value row.

The check line assumes the same 80% win rate and no further betting. That simplification is part of the example.

Four example spots with made-up stakes: a call, a bluff, a semi-bluff and a value bet, each with a positive average result. — Example inputs only. Each spot uses a pot of 100 and made-up frequencies to show how the formula works. Open full-size chart ↗

These counts are for study and post-session review. Where a row comes from a simulation, the caption names how many deals were run. Where a stack or a pot is made up, the caption says so. None of these figures is an instruction for a live pot.

What a bet is worth on average